{"id":4637,"date":"2026-06-14T13:11:51","date_gmt":"2026-06-14T13:11:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/csr-italia.org\/?page_id=4637"},"modified":"2026-08-08T15:48:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T13:48:39","slug":"come-leggere-una-valutazione-mst","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/csr-italia.org\/en\/come-leggere-una-valutazione-mst\/","title":{"rendered":"How to read a MST assessment"},"content":{"rendered":"

CSR assessments are based on the Multi-System Tension Framework (MST)<\/a><\/em><\/strong>

\n\nto observe the structural condition of the world's principal geopolitical macro-areas. The framework does not assess the severity of a single event.

\n\nA crisis, conflict, political decision, or economic shock may have significant media impact without materially altering the structural configuration of a macro-area.

\n\nConversely, gradual and persistent developments may reshape the balance of the system over time, even in the absence of highly visible events.

\n\nMST assessments therefore describe the structural condition of the macro-area observed during the analytical cycle under consideration.

\n\nThe four principal indicators used by the framework are:

\n\n\u2014-> MST Score
\n\u2014-> MacroBase
\n\u2014-> ICA (Adaptive Capacity Index)
\n\u2014-> FC (Convergence Factor)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MST Score<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The MST Score<\/strong> represents the synthetic measure of the overall systemic pressure observed within a macro-area.

\n\nThe value does not describe a single event, but rather the configuration resulting from the interaction of the principal structural tensions present within the regional system.

\n\nIn general terms:
\nlower values indicate systems with greater absorption capacity;
\nhigher values indicate systems exposed to persistent and multi-domain pressures.

\n\nThe MST Score makes it possible to track the evolution of a given macro-area over time and to compare, in relative terms, the positioning of the different geopolitical areas assessed by the framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MacroBase<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The MacroBase<\/strong> identifies the prevailing systemic configuration of the macro-area during the analytical cycle.

\n\nIt does not measure the probability of a specific event, but rather the form assumed by the structural pressures observed within the system.

\n\nThe principal configurations used by the framework are:

\n\nSustainable Pressure<\/strong>
\nTensions are present but remain contained and do not exhibit a significant capacity for propagation.

\n\nLatent Accumulation<\/strong>
\nPressures are increasing, but have not yet developed stable convergence across different domains.

\n\nSystemic Friction<\/strong>
\nTensions are persistent, distributed across multiple domains, and progressively consume the system\u2019s capacity for absorption.

\n\nCritical Convergence<\/strong>
\nPressures tend to align across different domains, significantly reducing the resilience of the macro-area and increasing the risk of systemic propagation.

\n\nSystemic Breakdown<\/strong>
\nA configuration characterized by the critical synchronization of pressures and the loss of systemic containment capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICA - Adaptive Capacity Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Adaptive Capacity Index (ICA)<\/strong> measures the macro-area's ability to absorb, manage and contain the structural pressures observed across the different domains.

The indicator does not assess the severity of a single event, but the overall resilience of the regional system.

Higher values indicate a greater ability of the macro-area to isolate and contain the pressures present.

Lower values, by contrast, indicate a weaker adaptive capacity and greater systemic fragility.

The ICA therefore makes it possible to assess how far the regional system is able to withstand the observed tensions without generating significant discontinuities.<\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FC - Convergence factor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Convergence Factor (FC)<\/strong> measures the degree of transmission of pressures across different domains.

\n\nThis indicator makes it possible to assess whether a tension originating in a specific domain is generating measurable effects in other areas of the regional system.

\n\nHigher values indicate a greater capacity for pressures to propagate and generate systemic effects.

\n\nThe FC does not measure the intensity of pressure itself, but rather its capacity for transmission within the macro-area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How to read an Assessment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

No indicator should be interpreted in isolation.

\n\nA macro-area may display a high MST Score while still maintaining a satisfactory containment capacity if pressures remain separated and the system retains adequate adaptive capabilities.

\n\nConversely, a macro-area with a lower level of pressure may become more vulnerable when tensions begin to converge and propagate across different domains.

\n\nFor this reason, the MST framework simultaneously evaluates:

\n\nthe intensity of pressures;
\nthe systemic configuration;
\nadaptive capacity;
\nmulti-domain transmission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From regional level up to global system<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Assessments of individual macro-areas constitute the foundation of the Global System Assessment (GSA)<\/strong>.

\n\nThe GSA integrates the configurations observed across different regional systems and provides a synthetic assessment of the condition of the international system during the analytical cycle under consideration.

\n\nWhile macro-area assessments describe the structural pressure affecting individual regional systems, the GSA evaluates their interaction at the global level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does the MST framework measure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The MST framework is not a predictive model.

\n\nIt does not provide forecasts of specific events and does not assign probabilities to individual crises.

\n\nIts purpose is to identify configurations of accumulation, convergence, and systemic compression that may alter the stability of macro-areas and of the international system over time.

\n\nThe framework does not measure what happens.

\n\nIt measures the structural conditions that make certain developments more or less likely over time.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le valutazioni pubblicate da CSR utilizzano il  Multi-System Tension Framework (MST)  per osservare lo stato strutturale delle principali macro-aree geopolitiche. Il framework non valuta la gravit\u00e0 di un singolo evento. Una crisi, un conflitto, una decisione politica o uno shock economico possono avere un forte impatto mediatico senza modificare in modo significativo la configurazione strutturale […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-with-title","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-4637","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t