June 2026 | CSR Italy | Strategic Nodes Dossier | Energy Vulnerability | Global Energy Access Architecture
Introduction
In recent years much of the public debate has interpreted energy tensions as a temporary consequence of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent economic sanctions. Yet, observing the evolution of global energy flows between 2022 and 2026, a different phenomenon emerges: the system is not returning to its previous configuration, but is adapting to a new structure of functioning.
The new stratified architecture
Between 2022 and June 2026 a model has consolidated in which global energy flows continue to circulate, but within an increasingly fragmented and selective system.
Control is no longer exercised only over primary resources (fields and production), but increasingly over the intermediate nodes that make access to energy possible: logistics, refining, financing and regulatory rule-making.
In other words, energy power is shifting from ownership of resources to control over the conditions of access to resources.
Concrete elements of this transformation:
— The Russian "shadow fleet" is now an established reality, with an estimated capacity of between 1,300 and 1,700 tankers, allowing it to partially bypass Western restrictions.
— Stable and massive rerouting toward Asia: China and India together absorb more than 85% of exported Russian oil.
— Development and institutionalization of parallel financial circuits (China's CIPS, payments in local currencies, bilateral clearing).
— Growth of intermediate refining hubs in third countries (India first, but also the Emirates, Turkey and others), which transform Russian crude and reinject it into the global market.
— Structural increase in transport, insurance and compliance costs on the parallel circuits.
Strategic implications
This new architecture generates a systemic compression of global efficiency. The flows do not stop, but they become more expensive, more opaque and more dependent on non-Western intermediaries. The result is a cumulative transmission of costs along the entire chain that translates into greater energy inflation, especially for Europe and other net importers.
For net importing countries, the issue does not concern only the price of energy. A more expensive and fragmented system transfers pressure to the entire economy through transport, manufacturing, logistics and the cost of capital. In the long run this can translate into lower industrial competitiveness and reduced investment capacity.
When access to energy becomes more expensive, more complex and more dependent on intermediaries, the effect is not confined to the energy markets. The additional costs are progressively transferred along the entire economic chain: transport, industry, logistics, food and services. The result is a persistent inflationary pressure that can reduce industrial competitiveness, investment capacity and purchasing power.
CSR Assessment
The analysis conducted by CSR highlights a configuration characterized by high persistence, significant capacity to transfer pressure and strong systemic inertia.
Even in the event of a future geopolitical détente, a return to previous conditions appears unlikely in the short term.
More than an energy crisis, the international system appears to be facing the formation of a new architecture of energy access destined to influence the economy, industry and geopolitics for years to come.
If this analysis describes the structural transformation of energy access, the dossier dedicated to strategic chokepoints shows how that vulnerability manifests operationally during a crisis.
Security of Flows and Strategic Chokepoints: The Acute Risk at Hormuz and Beyond