CSR assessments are based on the Multi-System Tension Framework (MST)
to observe the structural condition of the world's principal geopolitical macro-areas. The framework does not assess the severity of a single event.
A crisis, conflict, political decision, or economic shock may have significant media impact without materially altering the structural configuration of a macro-area.
Conversely, gradual and persistent developments may reshape the balance of the system over time, even in the absence of highly visible events.
MST assessments therefore describe the structural condition of the macro-area observed during the analytical cycle under consideration.
The four principal indicators used by the framework are:
—-> MST Score
—-> MacroBase
—-> ICA (Adaptive Capacity Index)
—-> FC (Convergence Factor)
MST Score
The MST Score represents the synthetic measure of the overall systemic pressure observed within a macro-area.
The value does not describe a single event, but rather the configuration resulting from the interaction of the principal structural tensions present within the regional system.
In general terms:
lower values indicate systems with greater absorption capacity;
higher values indicate systems exposed to persistent and multi-domain pressures.
The MST Score makes it possible to track the evolution of a given macro-area over time and to compare, in relative terms, the positioning of the different geopolitical areas assessed by the framework.
MacroBase
The MacroBase identifies the prevailing systemic configuration of the macro-area during the analytical cycle.
It does not measure the probability of a specific event, but rather the form assumed by the structural pressures observed within the system.
The principal configurations used by the framework are:
Sustainable Pressure
Tensions are present but remain contained and do not exhibit a significant capacity for propagation.
Latent Accumulation
Pressures are increasing, but have not yet developed stable convergence across different domains.
Systemic Friction
Tensions are persistent, distributed across multiple domains, and progressively consume the system’s capacity for absorption.
Critical Convergence
Pressures tend to align across different domains, significantly reducing the resilience of the macro-area and increasing the risk of systemic propagation.
Systemic Breakdown
A configuration characterized by the critical synchronization of pressures and the loss of systemic containment capacity.
ICA - Adaptive Capacity Index
The Adaptive Capacity Index (ICA) measures the macro-area's ability to absorb, manage and contain the structural pressures observed across the different domains.
The indicator does not assess the severity of a single event, but the overall resilience of the regional system.
Higher values indicate a greater ability of the macro-area to isolate and contain the pressures present.
Lower values, by contrast, indicate a weaker adaptive capacity and greater systemic fragility.
The ICA therefore makes it possible to assess how far the regional system is able to withstand the observed tensions without generating significant discontinuities.
FC - Convergence factor
The Convergence Factor (FC) measures the degree of transmission of pressures across different domains.
This indicator makes it possible to assess whether a tension originating in a specific domain is generating measurable effects in other areas of the regional system.
Higher values indicate a greater capacity for pressures to propagate and generate systemic effects.
The FC does not measure the intensity of pressure itself, but rather its capacity for transmission within the macro-area.
How to read an Assessment
No indicator should be interpreted in isolation.
A macro-area may display a high MST Score while still maintaining a satisfactory containment capacity if pressures remain separated and the system retains adequate adaptive capabilities.
Conversely, a macro-area with a lower level of pressure may become more vulnerable when tensions begin to converge and propagate across different domains.
For this reason, the MST framework simultaneously evaluates:
the intensity of pressures;
the systemic configuration;
adaptive capacity;
multi-domain transmission.
From regional level up to global system
Assessments of individual macro-areas constitute the foundation of the Global System Assessment (GSA).
The GSA integrates the configurations observed across different regional systems and provides a synthetic assessment of the condition of the international system during the analytical cycle under consideration.
While macro-area assessments describe the structural pressure affecting individual regional systems, the GSA evaluates their interaction at the global level.
What does the MST framework measure
The MST framework is not a predictive model.
It does not provide forecasts of specific events and does not assign probabilities to individual crises.
Its purpose is to identify configurations of accumulation, convergence, and systemic compression that may alter the stability of macro-areas and of the international system over time.
The framework does not measure what happens.
It measures the structural conditions that make certain developments more or less likely over time.