The CSR method applies a systemic geopolitical analysis approach to interpret the international system not through events, but through the structures that shape its evolution.
The starting question
The CSR method was developed to answer a fundamental question:
is the international system still relatively stable, or is it moving toward a phase of systemic instability?
To answer this question, CSR does not follow daily headlines and does not analyse the world as a sequence of isolated events.
Instead, it observes how structural pressures of different kinds accumulate, intensify, and begin to interact with one another.
The objective is not to predict a single event.
The objective is to understand when the system changes state.
Why a systemic geopolitical analysis approach
The international system cannot be observed directly in the same way as a single country or an individual crisis.
To interpret it, CSR adopts a systemic analysis approach: it examines how the main geopolitical macro-regions evolve and interact with one another.
These geopolitical macro-regions are strategic spaces where tensions, interdependencies, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities converge.
Within the CSR method, they constitute the intermediate unit through which the global system is analysed.
What does the CSR method observe
The method observes the main geopolitical macro-areas and measures the pressures that accumulate within them.
The underlying principle is simple:
— the international system cannot be understood only through events;
— it is understood by observing where and how structural pressures accumulate;
— it is truly understood when one observes how these pressures are transmitted from one geopolitical macro-area to another.
the six analysed domains
To assess the state of each macro-area, CSR uses six invariant structural domains:
— Security and military postures
— Energy and infrastructural architectures
— Financial and monetary circuits
— Normative and regulatory standards
— Cognitive and informational domain
— Technological-industrial ecosystems
These domains make it possible to understand not only where tensions emerge, but also how they reinforce one another and whether they tend to remain local or to propagate.
The Multi-System Framework (MST) role
The operational tool of the method is the Multi-System Tension Framework (MST).
The MST analyses each macro-area in a multidomain way and produces a structural assessment of its condition.
It is designed to answer key questions:
— Where are pressures concentrated?
— How intense are they?
— To what extent does the macro-area retain adaptive capacity?
— Do tensions tend to spread beyond the regional context?
The MST does not produce a regional chronicle.
It produces a structural assessment of the observed macro-area.
From MST to Global System Assessment (GSA)
The regional assessments produced through the MST framework are integrated into the Global System Assessment (GSA).
The GSA provides the overall assessment of the state of the international system resulting from the interaction among geopolitical macro-areas.
It does not describe a single episode.
It does not measure a specific crisis.
It measures the level of systemic pressure that emerges from the analytical cycle under consideration.
In simple terms:
— the method observes geopolitical macro-areas;
— the MST assesses their structural condition;
— the GSA integrates these assessments and returns the overall picture of the system.
The GSA Index
The GSA Index is derived from the GSA. It is the synthetic indicator on a 1–5 scale that expresses numerically the level of global systemic pressure.
This scale does not measure isolated events.
It measures the structural pressure generated by the interaction among geopolitical macro-areas.
Its purpose is to make the overall condition of the international system readable and comparable over time.
How to interpretate the GSA Index
1.0 – 2.0 | Sustainable pressure
Tensions are present, but remain contained within the ordinary dynamics of the system.
2.0 – 3.0 | Latent accumulation
Pressures increase, but do not yet generate significant friction among the main geopolitical macro-areas.
3.0 – 4.0 | Systemic friction
Tensions become more intense, more persistent, and more interconnected.
4.0 – 4.5 | Critical convergence
Multidomain pressures tend to synchronize across several geopolitical macro-areas, increasing the risk of destabilization.
4.5 – 5.0 | Systemic rupture
The convergence of tensions produces a phase of rupture in the global systemic equilibrium.
How to read the system state in the homepage
Nella homepage del CSR il lettore trova una sintesi pubblica dello stato del sistema internazionale.
disponibile nel Dashboard pubblico.
Questa sintesi si basa su tre elementi:
— una categoria sistemica
— una configurazione in atto
— un GSA Index
Questi elementi non sono previsioni puntuali.
Non indicano che un evento specifico accadrà.
Descrivono invece in quale stato si trova il sistema nel ciclo di analisi considerato.
Quando il sistema viene descritto come fase di attrito sistemico, significa che le pressioni tra macro-aree geopolitiche stanno aumentando, si stanno interconnettendo e iniziano a propagarsi tra domini diversi.
l valore del GSA Index indica la fascia di pressione sistemica in cui si colloca il sistema internazionale nel ciclo considerato. La sua interpretazione dipende dalla scala strutturale del GSA: dalla Pressione sostenibile alla Rottura sistemica.
What the CSR method is not
To understand the method properly, it is also useful to clarify what it does not do.
The CSR method is not intended to:
— comment on every news item in real time;
— provide simple geopolitical commentary;
— treat every crisis as an isolated episode;
— replace analysis with a number;
— produce short-term point predictions.
It is designed instead to:
— observe the accumulation of structural pressures;
— read their distribution across different domains;
— understand when they begin to spread across geopolitical macro-areas;
— assess whether the international system is entering a phase of friction, critical convergence, or rupture.
In summary
The CSR method starts from a simple principle:
the international system is not a sum of events, but a dynamic configuration of structural pressures that accumulate and interact over time.
To read this configuration, CSR:
— observes the main geopolitical macro-areas;
— analyses each macro-area through six invariant structural domains;
— uses the MST framework to assess its structural condition;
— integrates the regional assessments into the Global System Assessment;
— expresses the synthetic result through the GSA Index.
The ultimate goal is not to narrate the world day by day.
It is to understand when the system changes state.
Within this framework, the CSR method’s systemic geopolitical analysis interprets the international system as a dynamic configuration of structural pressures, providing an interpretative and operational tool for decision-making in complex environments.